Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
